The Seattle Times - Dominic Gates

Speakers at a major local aviation suppliers conference Wednesday were sharply divided over how quickly the aerospace industry can climb out of the depths of the current pandemic-driven downturn.

“We are at exactly the low point and it will get better from here,” predicted Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group for 30 years. “Good times begin to come back in late 2021 and are really back in late 2022.”

But Adam Pilarski, aviation analyst and economist with Avitas, who has 40 years in the industry, responded with disbelief.

“I can’t see that,” Pilarski said. At airlines, “fleets in a year or two will be much smaller. They didn’t retire the planes yet. But it will be happening.” here