Aviation Week - Antoine Gelain

Many of us in the aerospace community are trying to estimate how great the overall damage of the COVID-19 crisis will be and how long it will take for the industry to return to some level of normalcy. But this exercise is somewhat futile because in extreme, “out-of-boundary” situations like this, standard forecasting models do not work. It is like doing division: When the denominator gets (close) to zero, the result (infinity) becomes meaningless.

And so we are left with two yardsticks: our own gut feeling and our ability to look at the situation from enough distance to enable us to see some underlying patterns or long-term trends that might emerge from the apparent chaos...more

Not a member?
Take a look at our member benefits